A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
