Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
